Great Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report 2016: 4G Spectrum Valuation, Outlook, And Business Models In African Markets – Premium Package
Premium version of the Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report, including a Pivot table covering 2G, 3G and 4G transactions, along with detailed value for each on a Price/MHz/Pop/Year benchmark basis, along with more than 50 supporting charts and data points in Excel format.
How much is African wireless spectrum worth? African governments have sold around $15bn worth of wireless spectrum since 1998, in three waves of awards covering 2G, 3G and now, 4G frequencies. By our estimates, Africa is sitting on around $5bn worth of 4G spectrum, and over the next 18 months, markets from Egypt to South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal and others will sell or seek to value a trove of frequencies that will pave the way for next generation digital services.
And yet, even as they seek to precisely assess the value of the 4G spectrum on offer, buyers and sellers alike have surprisingly few independent tools for intra-African spectrum transaction benchmarking and value analysis. The Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report provides such a tool.
We have analyzed 60 spectrum transactions across 20 African markets over the past 10 years (2006-2016), included in around 35 separate processes covering 1100MHz worth of 3G and/or 4G spectrum.
The Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report assesses the value of various 4G bands in African markets and offers a qualitative and quantitative framework for estimating 4G spectrum value in the African context. In addition, the report provides projected value ranges for upcoming and/or anticipated 4G spectrum auctions, including for markets such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Senegal. Further, the report explores a range of issues related to 3G and 4G spectrum, from the business feasibility of 4G at current spectrum value points to the future of so-called spectrum asset companies.
Key Topics Covered:
1. 4G in Africa: An Overview
– 4G in Africa – Overview
– Africa 4G Overview – 2016, the Year African 4G Took Off
– Tracking the Pace of African 4G Roll-Out
– Africa 4G vs. the World: Not Quite Dovetailing Global Trends (Yet)
– 4G Licensing Status in a Number of Key African Markets
2. Africa Spectrum Overview: With 4G, the Third Wave of Spectrum is Here
– Africa spectrum Licensing: $16bn in Proceeds So Far, and More Is Coming
– Africa spectrum Licensing: Africa Sitting on -$5bn in 4G Spectrum Value
– Analysis of African 4G Spectrum Proceeds by Band
– Markets that Have Generated the Most Proceeds from Selling Licenses
3. Parameters of Valuation, Our Benchmark Sample and Drivers of Value
– Africa 4G Spectrum Valuation – General Parameters
– Our Benchmark Valuation Sample: 60 Spectrum Transactions, More than 100 Value Points
– Our Valuation Sample: In Africa, Auctions are a Fluid Concept
– Mapping Our 3G/4G Transaction Sample
– Africa 4G – Drivers of Value
– Africa 4G – A Review of Spectrum Bands
– Mapping of Spectrum Bands in the African Context
4. A Visual Mapping of Africa’s 3G and 4G Valuation
– Mapping Africa Spectrum Value – Transaction Value vs. GDP/Capita @ PPP
– Mapping Africa Spectrum Value – Transaction Value vs. GDP/Capita @ PPP by Band
– Mapping Africa Spectrum Value – Transaction Value by Band – 2G vs. 3G vs. 4G
– Blocks of Spectrum Matter to Value – And 4G will be Pricier than 3G Was
5. Value Analysis: The 2100 MHz (3G) Band
– 2100 MHz – The Second Most Prolific Phase of Spectrum Sales – For Now
– Breaking Down 3G Spectrum Value: The 2100 MHz Band
– Breaking Down 3G Spectrum Value: The 2100 MHz Band
6. Value Analysis: 800 MHz Band – The Resurrection of a Band
– Africa 4G: 800 MHz [Band 20] – The Resurrection of a Band
– Nigeria 800 MHz Band – The Evolution of a Band
– Breaking Down 4G Spectrum Value: The 800 MHz Band
– Mapping Out Africa’s 800 MHz Band
– The 800 MHz Band – More Expensive in Sub-Saharan Africa
– The 800 MHz Band’s Value Inflation
– Africa’s 4G 800 MHz Values – A -4x Discount from European Levels
7. Value Analysis: The 2.6 GHz Band – Between 4G and FWA Valuation
– The Rise of the 2.6GHz Band – 2016 Is the Year
– The Other Upper 2GHz Bands – From African WiMAX to African LTE-TDD
– The 2.6 GHz Band – The Largest Amount of Capacity Sold but the Lowest Proceeds Generated
– Breaking Down the 2600 MHz Band Value
– The 2.6 GHz Band – Should it be Valued as 4G, or as FWA/WiMAX Spectrum?
– Africa’s 2.6 GHz Band – In Some Cases Pricier than in Europe..
8. MAKING THE CASE: WAS AFRICAN 3G WORTH THE MONEY?
Assessing 3G Returns in African Markets
The Nigeria 3G Case – Leader Returns vs. Challenger Returns
The Egypt 3G Case – Terrible Returns, but that Hardly Matters
The Cote-d’Ivoire 3G Case – Some 3G Investments Do Generate Positive Returns
A Summary View of 3G: The 4G Timing Problem, and Looking Beyond Economics
9. Making the Case: Is African 4G Worth the Money?
– Is African 4G Spectrum Worth the Money?
– The Case for 4G – More than the Net Present Value of Cash Flows
– Assessing 4G Value: Is It Worth It vs. Can You Handle It
– The Case for 4G Spectrum
10. A Benchmark Valuation of Upcoming 4G Spectrum Sales
10.1. Breaking Down our Benchmark Valuation Approach
– How We Estimated Spectrum Value – On a Benchmark Basis
10.2. Valuing Nigeria’s 2.6GHz Spectrum
– Nigeria 4G Comparables – Ghana and Morocco Come Closest
– Nigeria 2.6 GHz Auction – Value Assessment
– How Much for Nigeria’s 2.6 GHz?
– Nigeria 2.6 GHz – A Challenging Market Context Will Make it Tough to Justify the Valuation
– The Problem with Stand-Alone 2.6 GHz Spectrum and the Lack of First Mover Advantage
– Nigeria 2.6 GHz – Making the (Difficult) Case for GSM, FWA Operators
10.3. Nigeria: Scanning the 700 MHz Sale to MTN Nigeria – How Much is it Really Worth?
– MTN Nigeria’s 700 MHz Spectrum – Genesis of a Conflict
– MTN Nigeria’s 700 MHz Spectrum – Was the Value High..or Too Low?
– Nigeria – What’s the True Value of MTN Nigeria’s 700 MHz Spectrum
10.4. How Much for South Africa’s 4G Spectrum?
– South Africa’s 4G Auction – Any Time Now..
– South Africa 4G Auction – Looking for Comparables
– South Africa 4G Auction – Assessing the Value of the Proposed 800 MHz Lot
– South Africa 4G Auction – Assessing the Value of the Proposed 2600 MHz Lot
– South Africa 4G Auction – Assessing the Full Value of the Non-Wholesale Lots
– South Africa 4G Auction – The 700MHz Should be the Priciest – Except Not
10.5. Senegal – A Squabble Over 4G Spectrum Value
– Senegal 4G Spectrum – A Conflict Over 4G Value
– Senegal 4G Value – Finding the Right Comparables
– What is the Fair Value for Senegal’s 4G Licence?
10.6. Egypt 4G Licence – Once Again Looking to be Africa’s Highest Valuation
– Egypt 4G Context – Waiting for Godot
– Valuing Egypt’s 4G Licence – How Much is Too Much?
11. Africa’s 4G Spectrum Plays: Visafone, Smile Communications, Intercellular and Others
– Acquiring a Spectrum Play vs. Acquiring a Spectrum Licence
– 4G Spectrum Plays – Breaking Down Visafone’s Value
– 4G Spectrum Plays – Smile Communications Nigeria
– 4G Spectrum Plays – In Nigeria, a Narrow Window to Sell
– Intercellular Nigeria – First Protect the Asset, then Sell the Asset
– Africa 4G Spectrum Licensing Table
– LTE FDD Band Table
– LTE TDD Band Table
For more information about this report visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/m7gfv2/the_africa_4g
FOLLOW NEW AFRICA BUSINESS NEWS ON FACEBOOK @ New Africa Business News.com